This article was written by Brian Mbugua who works for URP. 
His opinions do not necessarily represent that of Bizna’s.

Eggs are selling @10bob. Petrol @83.Electricity down by 25%. Some fares have reduced. Now companies are starting to reduce manufactured goods prices.

If low global oil prices hold and investment in power sector comes fruition, the SGR come on board, and the 10,000 tarmac roads under annuity programme, we could be back to Moi era low inflation (except in 93-96)consumer federation and activism need to demand price reduction in every good and service now.

Kibaki grew the economy but hyperinflation eroded any effect on mwananchi.

Hyperinflation is hyperbole but there is no doubt that inflation went haywire in Kibaki regime we had to change the formula of calculating it from arithmetic mean to geometric mean. The underlying inflation was under control and never went double digit.

The inflation that really hit the poor the most is inflation on food prices, housing and other basic commodities. You have to understand that inflation affect people differently. Lower class people whose expenditure consists of mainly food and basic commodities were really hit hard. Middle class and upper class will still afford eggs at 30bob.

Under kibaki regime, inflation was the main issues in 2007 election; it was ODM main agenda that effectively countered Kibaki economic growth.

Inflation has to go hand in hand with rising income levels. Did income rise with inflation under Kibaki????????????

You do not need to be economist to know under Kibaki era, prices of unga rose from kshs 28shs to 150shs! Did the urban poor in kibera seem income levels rising from day income of 100b to 500bob? Maybe? At best it cancels out at worse it responsible for high poverty rates we see around.

In this regime, Uhuruto by hard-work, chance or luckwill deliver 7% growth rate with low inflation and will therefore really dent poverty. And that is the dillema we face a growing economy but with poverty rate stuck at 50%.

If you have been around and reading these kind of projections; then by now you’ll know WB/IMF are normally pessimistic on their projection and normally the Ken economy outperforms their projections; just check recent projections.

By now the WB is making a revision because data for say last two quarters are in. There is no doubt that baring a disaster kenya economy will grow at 7%.

And the good news is that we seem to have finally slain the inflation dragon. This is normally the ‘worse’ quarter due to dry season of Jan-march, however my own anecdotal data seem to suggest a serious drop in prices a deflation in fact.

UhuruRuto government have a real chance to really eradicate poverty at much faster rate than Kibaki.