Timing: The single biggest reason why startups succeed

When talking about why some startups thrive while others collapse, most entrepreneurs point to great ideas, funding, or strong teams. But according to Bill T. Gross, founder of Idealab and one of the world’s most experienced startup builders, timing is the single biggest reason why startups succeed.

Gross analyzed over 100 companies, ranking them by five factors: idea, team and execution, business model, funding, and timing. His conclusion was surprising: timing accounted for 42% of startup success, more than any other factor.

Why Timing Determines Startup Success

A brilliant idea launched too early (before the market is ready) can fail just as easily as a poor one launched too late. Timing determines whether consumers, technology, and the market environment are prepared to accept a new product or service.

Globally, we’ve seen clear examples:

• Airbnb launched during the 2008 financial crisis when people needed extra income, making room rentals appealing.
• Uber thrived because smartphone usage and mobile payments were on the rise.
• YouTube succeeded as broadband internet finally became fast enough to support video streaming. Each of these companies succeeded because it entered the market at the right time.

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Lessons for Kenyan Entrepreneurs

For Kenyan startups and SMEs, timing is equally critical. Kenya’s fast-changing economy offers opportunities in fintech, agritech, renewable energy, and e-commerce—but only for those who understand the market pulse.

M-Pesa is Kenya’s strongest example of perfect timing. Launched in 2007 as mobile phone adoption surged, it gave millions of people an easy way to send and receive money. The market was ready, and M-Pesa transformed financial inclusion in Africa.

Twiga Foods took off as urbanization increased, creating a need for efficient agricultural supply chains. Farmers needed markets; retailers needed a steady supply—Twiga connected them at the right moment.

By contrast, many early e-commerce startups in Kenya launched before infrastructure, internet access, and digital payments were ready. Today, companies like Jumia and Glovo are thriving because the environment has matured.

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How to Get Startup Timing Right

To determine the right market timing, entrepreneurs should ask:

1. ⁠Is the market ready? Are people aware of and searching for the solution you offer?
2. Is the technology mature? Can your idea operate efficiently with today’s systems?
3. ⁠Are there enabling trends? Watch for regulatory, cultural, or economic changes that encourage adoption.

Parting shot

Success in entrepreneurship isn’t just about a big idea or large investors. It’s about launching at the right moment—when consumers, infrastructure, and technology align.

African economies are moving fast. Entrepreneurs who read the trends and act at the right time will lead the next generation of startup and SME growth in Africa.