Africa’s aviation industry is preparing for a period of significant expansion. According to Boeing’s 2026 Commercial Market Outlook, passenger traffic across the continent is forecast to grow by an average of 5.8 per cent annually through to 2045, while the commercial aircraft fleet is expected to more than double, from 755 aircraft in 2025 to 1,625 by 2045. African airlines are also expected to take delivery of 1,165 new aircraft over the period, reflecting growing demand for domestic, regional and international connectivity.
This growth will create substantial opportunities for both airlines and the wider aviation services industry. Boeing estimates that Africa’s aviation services market will be worth USD 140 billion (KES18.2tn) between 2026 and 2045, including an estimated USD 90 billion (KES11.7tn) in aircraft maintenance. However, despite the expansion of the continent’s aviation market, much of the economic value generated by maintaining, repairing and supporting its aircraft continues to accrue outside Africa.
The scale of this outflow is already significant with African airlines spending an estimated USD 1.8 billion (KES234bn) annually on maintenance services abroad, according to the African Airlines Association. This is capital that could support local engineering businesses and create skilled employment. Instead, a substantial proportion flows to established maintenance centres in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, reflecting Africa’s limited capacity to undertake sophisticated engine, landing gear and component overhauls.
The consequences of this dependence extend well beyond the maintenance invoice. Aircraft sent abroad for servicing must be taken out of commercial operation, while airlines incur additional logistical expenses and face greater scheduling uncertainties. Delays in securing maintenance slots can further disrupt fleet availability and affect the reliability of flight schedules.
How Kenya Airways assigns aircraft to specific routes
All these constraints carry a significant operational and financial cost, making the expansion of local maintenance, repair and overhaul capacity essential to strengthening the operational resilience and competitiveness of African airlines.
Kenya Airways is particularly well placed to lead this shift, given its established workforce of more than 700 technical specialists, infrastructure and regulatory credentials. It already undertakes a range of specialised maintenance activities for at least 28 customer airlines across Africa. Recently, for example, its engineers completed their first in house landing gear replacement on an aircraft, a complex operation involving a component weighing approximately six tonnes. The achievement followed years of technical preparation and training, demonstrating the level of expertise required to undertake sophisticated maintenance work locally.
The strategic significance of such milestones, however, goes beyond the completion of individual engineering procedures. Each additional maintenance capability developed in Nairobi creates an opportunity to reduce dependence on external providers while expanding the range of services available to other airlines facing similar constraints. Over time, this can transform an internal operational function into a competitive commercial business, positioning Kenya as a regional centre for specialised aviation services.
Realising this ambition will depend as much on people as it does on infrastructure, equipment, and policy and regulatory support. Boeing estimates that Africa will require approximately 25,000 additional aircraft maintenance technicians between 2026 and 2045. This demand presents an opportunity for Kenya to strengthen its technical education system and develop a larger pool of internationally certified aviation engineers. Investing in these skills will be essential to ensuring that the continent’s growing maintenance requirements can increasingly be met by its own workforce with Kenya leading that charge.
Ultimately, Africa’s expanding aviation market presents an opportunity to build more than airline capacity. It offers the prospect of developing a competitive aviation services industry that creates skilled jobs and retains greater economic value within the continent. With sustained investment and supportive policies, Kenya can establish itself as a regional centre for aircraft maintenance and engineering, ensuring that the benefits of Africa’s aviation growth are increasingly captured at home.
