The Kenya Shilling is expected to hit record lows of 210 against the US dollar by the end of 2024 in a worst-case performance scenario.
This is according to a set of financial experts who spoke to financial media house Bloomberg.
The financial experts also predicted that in a mildest performance case scenario, the Shilling will end the year at historic lows of around 171 to the US dollar.
This prediction is echoed by similar prediction from Sanlam Investments. According to Sanlam, the Shilling will continue its depreciation trend this year.
“We expect the shilling to depreciate in 2024 but face less pressure than 2023 as the Central Bank of Kenya has increased interest rates and US interest rates are projected to decline,” Sanlam says in its Sanlam Investments East Africa Limited (SIEAL) 2024 Investment Themes and Outlook report.
The Shilling’s performance has deteriorated sharply since early December when it traded at 153 to the US dollar. By the end of year 2023, the Shilling had lost about 21 per cent in value since January 2023. This has since exacerbated to 23 per cent to 23 per cent since the start of 2023.
According to the official indicative exchange rate by the Central Bank of Kenya, the Shilling on Tuesday opened the day at 161.3576 against the US dollar.
However, local commercial banks and forex bureaus are selling the US dollar at highs of between 165.75 and 168 per dollar. A spot check on Tuesday showed that Satellite Forex Bureau was selling the dollar at 165.5 and buying at 163.2.
Kenya Shilling now Africa’s second worst performing currency
Pacific Forex Bureau was selling the dollar at 166.5 and buying at 162 per unit. Among commercial banks, the NCBA Bank was buying the dollar at 160.25 and selling the same at 165.75.
According to a report by the Bloomberg, the shilling’s performance places it as the second worst performing currency in Africa so far in 2024.
