Thursday, September 28, 2023

Next President of Kenya: This will be the most likely winner

Who will be elected as the next president of Kenya on Tuesday August 9 2022? With days left to the general election, the race for the presidential seat seems like a two-horse race between Hon. Raila Odinga and Dr. Ruto.

Some have taken to social media to create opinion polls that have revealed that the presidential outcome will be won by the slightest of margins.

George Wajackoyah and David Mwaure are the other candidates for the country’s top seat, however, their numbers are insignificant compared to the latter political veterans.

Readers are cautioned that while accurate opinion polls can predict the outcome of elections, there are many uncertainties involved. Opinion polls can get it wrong and many factors can cause them to be inaccurate. They capture the opinion of the sample at the time of the interview.

Disclaimer: This article does not predict the outcome of the elections but rather gives an overview of what to expect.

Let us take a look at the various opinion polls that have been conducted in the past week.

  1. TIFA poll

This is a survey conducted by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA). The survey revealed that Azimio flagbearer Raila Odinga will win the presidential elections by 53%, followed by William Ruto as runners-up with 45%.

George Wajackoyah managed to get 2% while David Mwaure was last, having 0.2%. The survey was done covering a total of 2,268 respondents between 31st July and 1st July.

The 53% and 45% respectively, follow without considering undecided voters. If they are factored in, Raila still beats Ruto by an 8 percent margin, with Raila having 49% and Ruto having 41%. This would likely force a rerun after failure to meet the 50+1% requirement.

Both Wajackoyah and Mwaure retain their percentages with or without the undecided voters’ considerations.

  1. Nation Media Group (NMG) Poll

InfoTrak Research conducted a poll sponsored by the Nation Media Group. It suggests that Raila leads the race to the statehouse by a similar figure to the TIFA poll, at 49% with Ruto following closely at 41% retaining the 8% gap margin.

Wajackoyah and Mwaure remain at 2% and 0.2%. In the last poll conducted in May by NMG, Raila and Ruto tied at 42%, and now Ruto has lost a point while Raila has gained seven points.

In terms of gender, more women are undecided than men. Men supporting Raila are 51% of the 2,400 respondents while those of Ruto are 41%. Females supporting Raila are 46% and 41% for Ruto.

For both Wajackoyah and Mwaure, their male supporters stand at 2% and 0.2%. Their female supporters are 3% and 0.2%.

3. IPSOS Poll

A survey conducted by the IPSOS group between July 23rd and July 30th shows Azimio leader, Raila Odinga has support from 47% of voters who took part in the poll. Deputy President William Ruto follows behind at 41%, a six percent margin.

Wajackoyah and Mwaure followed a distant third and fourth scoring one-digit figures. Wajackoyah had 2.9% while Mwaure had 0.2% of the votes.

9 percent of voters who participated in the poll were undecided. The sample size was 6,105 Kenyans aged above 18 years, covering all 47 counties.

According to the polls, Raila’s age and Ruto’s integrity issues are their major setbacks in the race for the presidency. Raila is 77 years old while Ruto is accused of multiple corruption scandals.

IPSOS poll shows Dr. Ruto has higher appeal in rural areas, among females and 18 to 34 year-olds, while Mr. Odinga is more popular among males, urbanites, and older voters.

4. InfoTrak Poll

InfoTrak conducted a poll of their own. It revealed that Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga would win 49% of the votes among the sample size. His rival William Ruto, running on a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket would scoop 42% of the votes, a 7% point gap.

Roots Party candidate George Wajackoyah is at third place with 2%, while David Waihiga of the Agano Party has 0.3%.

At least 6% of the respondents are undecided on their preferred presidential candidate, with less than a week remaining to the elections.

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