Violent swings in oil prices are destabilizing economies and financial markets worldwide.

When the oil price halved last year, from $110 to $55 a barrel, the cause was obvious: Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase its share of the global oil market by expanding production.

But what accounts for the further plunge in oil prices in the last few weeks – to lows last seen in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis – and how will it affect the world economy?

The standard explanation is weak Chinese demand, with the oil-price collapse widely regarded as a portent of recession, either in China or for the entire global economy. But this is almost certainly wrong, even though it seems to be confirmed by the tight correlation between oil and equity markets, which have fallen to their lowest levels since 2009 not only in China, but also in Europe and most emerging economies.

The predictive significance of oil prices is indeed impressive, but only as a contrary indicator: Falling oil prices have never correctly predicted an economic downturn. On all recent occasions when the price of oil was halved – 1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1992-1993, 1997-1998, and 2001-2002 – faster global growth followed.

Conversely, every global recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by a sharp increase in oil prices. Most recently, the price of oil almost tripled, from $50 to $140, in the year leading up to the 2008 crash; it then plunged to $40 in the six months immediately before the economic recovery that started in April 2009.

An important corollary for commodity-producing developing countries is that industrial metal prices, which really are leading indicators of economic activity, may well increase after an oil-price collapse. In 1986-87, for example, metal prices doubled a year after oil prices fell by half.

REUTERS/Henry Romero A refinery worker walks near distillation towers, which are used to separate crude oil into lighter and heavier hydrocarbons during the refining process, in Tula November 21, 2013.

A powerful economic mechanism underlies the inverse correlation between oil prices and global growth. Because the world burns 34 billion barrels of oil every year, a $10 fall in the price of oil shifts $340 billion from oil producers to consumers. Thus, the $60 price decline since last August will redistribute more than $2 trillion annually to oil consumers, providing a bigger income boost than the combined US and Chinese fiscal stimulus in 2009.

Because oil consumers generally spend extra income fairly quickly, while governments (which collect the bulk of global oil revenues) usually maintain public spending by borrowing or running down reserves, the net effect of lower oil prices has always been positive for global growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, the fall in oil prices this year should boost 2016 GDP by 0.5-1% globally, including growth of 0.3-0.4% in Europe, 1-1.2% in the US, and 1-2% in China.

But if growth is likely to accelerate next year in oil-consuming economies such as China, what explains plunging oil prices? The answer lies not in China’s economy and oil demand, but in Middle East geopolitics and oil supply.

While Saudi production policies were clearly behind last year’s halving of the oil price, the latest plunge began on July 6, within days of the deal to lift international sanctions against Iran.

The Iran nuclear deal refuted the widespread but naive assumption that geopolitics can drive oil prices in only one direction. Traders suddenly recalled that geopolitical events can increase oil supplies, not just reduce them – and that further geopolitics-driven supply boosts are likely in the years ahead.

Reuters/Rupak De ChowdhuriA worker eats a banana while sitting amid empty oil containers at a recycling yard in Kolkata, India.

Conditions in Libya, Russia, Venezuela, and Nigeria are already so bad that further damage to their oil output is hard to imagine. On the contrary, with so many of the world’s most productive oil regions gripped by political chaos, any sign of stabilization can quickly boost supplies. That is what happened in Iraq last year, and Iran is now taking this process to a higher level.

Once sanctions are lifted, Iran promises to double oil exports almost immediately to two million barrels daily, and then to double exports again by the end of the decade. To do this, Iran would have to boost its total output (including domestic consumption) to six million barrels per day, roughly equal to its peak production in the 1970s.

Given the enormous advances in oil-extraction technology since the 1970s and the immense size of Iran’s reserves (the fourth-largest in the world, after Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela), restoring output to the levels of 40 years ago seems a modest objective.

To find buyers for all this extra oil, roughly equal to the extra output produced by the US shale revolution, Iran will have to compete fiercely not only with Saudi Arabia, but also with Iraq, Kazakhstan, Russia, and other low-cost producers.

All of these countries are also determined to restore their output to previous peak levels and should be able to pump more oil than they did in the 1970s and 1980s by exploiting new production technologies pioneered in the US.

In this newly competitive environment, oil will trade like any normal commodity, with the Saudi monopoly broken and North American production costs setting a long-term price ceiling of around $50 a barrel, for reasons I set out in January.

So, if you want to understand falling oil prices, forget about Chinese consumption and focus on Middle East production. And if you want to understand the world economy, forget about stock markets and focus on the fact that cheap oil always boosts global growth.

Thousands of jobless Kenyans yesterday turned up in a recruitment exercise at Kasarani Stadium in what is suspiciously shaping out to have been a con game. This followed widely circulated reports that the East Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Safe Promotion International organization was offering jobs to at least 20,000 Kenyans. Job seekers started arriving at the stadium as early as 6am.

According to the East Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Safe Promotion International organization’s CEO Mr. Julius Kithome, the exercise was being conducted in conjunction with the ministry of devolution. Furthermore, according to the NGOs co-ordination board, the organization has not been registered as an NGO by the board and is neither working or partnering with the ministry of devolution.

“Kenya will experience a revolution during the programme’s first year in terms of economic and social empowerment of her people. We have the blessings of the government,” said Mr Kithome. Strikingly, no government official from the ministry of devolution or any other civil office was present during the exercise.

According to one of the appointment letters issued to the more than 20,000 unemployed Kenyans who received the appointment letters, the position of regional Unit Cluster Manager in Nyanza has a gross salary of Sh. 120,000 per month. The appointed person is expected to work for five days in a week and half day on Saturdays.

Nonetheless, reports are emerging that the organization was asking for Sh. 1,000 for transport, Sh. 500 for T-Shirts, and Sh. 300 for badges from those who attended the public interviews. Additionally, those who had applied for the jobs were being asked to pay Sh. 350 as registration fees.

Notably, two of the company’s directors had been arrested in July after soliciting Sh. 150,000 from jobless youths in Voi during similar job interview.

According to Jay Walloga, the organization had earlier tried to con his mother Sh. 2,000. “My mum was nominated by the same organization for training and was promised that the money President Obama brought is being given to women and youth through the said NGO. She has been asked to pay 2,000 to facilitate their transport costs from western to Nairobi for purposes of launching the program at Uhuru park on 31 August 2015,” said Walloga in an online platform.

Here are some of Warren Buffett’s money-making secrets — and how they could work for you.

1. Reinvest Your Profits: When you first make money in the stock market, you may be tempted to spend it. Don’t. Instead, reinvest the profits. Warren Buffett learned this early on. In high school, he and a pal bought a pinball machine to put in a barbershop. With the money they earned, they bought more machines until they had eight in different shops. When the friends sold the venture, Warren Buffett used the proceeds to buy stocks and to start another small business. By age 26, he’d amassed $174,000 — or $1.4 million in today’s money. Even a small sum can turn into great wealth.
2. Be Willing To Be Different: Don’t base your decisions upon what everyone is saying or doing. When Warren Buffett began managing money in 1956 with $100,000 cobbled together from a handful of investors, he was dubbed an oddball. He worked in Omaha, not Wall Street, and he refused to tell his parents where he was putting their money. People predicted that he’d fail, but when he closed his partnership 14 years later, it was worth more than $100 million. Instead of following the crowd, he looked for undervalued investments and ended up vastly beating the market average every single year. To Warren Buffett, the average is just that — what everybody else is doing. to be above average, you need to measure yourself by what he calls the Inner Scorecard, judging yourself by your own standards and not the world’s.
3. Never Suck Your Thumb: Gather in advance any information you need to make a decision, and ask a friend or relative to make sure that you stick to a deadline. Warren Buffett prides himself on swiftly making up his mind and acting on it. He calls any unnecessary sitting and thinking “thumb sucking.” When people offer him a business or an investment, he says, “I won’t talk unless they bring me a price.” He gives them an answer on the spot.
4. Spell Out The Deal Before You Start: Your bargaining leverage is always greatest before you begin a job — that’s when you have something to offer that the other party wants. Warren Buffett learned this lesson the hard way as a kid, when his grandfather Ernest hired him and a friend to dig out the family grocery store after a blizzard. The boys spent five hours shoveling until they could barely straighten their frozen hands. Afterward, his grandfather gave the pair less than 90 cents to split. Warren Buffett was horrified that he performed such backbreaking work only to earn pennies an hour. Always nail down the specifics of a deal in advance — even with your friends and relatives.
5. Watch Small Expenses: Warren Buffett invests in businesses run by managers who obsess over the tiniest costs. He one acquired a company whose owner counted the sheets in rolls of 500-sheet toilet paper to see if he was being cheated (he was). He also admired a friend who painted only on the side of his office building that faced the road. Exercising vigilance over every expense can make your profits — and your paycheck — go much further.
6. Limit What You Borrow: Living on credit cards and loans won’t make you rich. Warren Buffett has never borrowed a significant amount — not to invest, not for a mortgage. He has gotten many heart-rendering letters from people who thought their borrowing was manageable but became overwhelmed by debt. His advice: Negotiate with creditors to pay what you can. Then, when you’re debt-free, work on saving some money that you can use to invest.
7. Be Persistent: With tenacity and ingenuity, you can win against a more established competitor. Warren Buffett acquired the Nebraska Furniture Mart in 1983 because he liked the way its founder, Rose Blumkin, did business. A Russian immigrant, she built the mart from a pawnshop into the largest furniture store in North America. Her strategy was to undersell the big shots, and she was a merciless negotiator. To Warren Buffett, Rose embodied the unwavering courage that makes a winner out of an underdog.
8. Know When To Quit: Once, when Warren Buffett was a teen, he went to the racetrack. He bet on a race and lost. To recoup his funds, he bet on another race. He lost again, leaving him with close to nothing. He felt sick — he had squandered nearly a week’s earnings. Warren Buffett never repeated that mistake. Know when to walk away from a loss, and don’t let anxiety fool you into trying again.
9. Assess The Risk: In 1995, the employer of Warren Buffett’s son, Howie, was accused by the FBI of price-fixing. Warren Buffett advised Howie to imagine the worst-and-bast-case scenarios if he stayed with the company. His son quickly realized that the risks of staying far outweighed any potential gains, and he quit the next day. Asking yourself “and then what?” can help you see all of the possible consequences when you’re struggling to make a decision — and can guide you to the smartest choice.
10. Know What Success Really Means: Despite his wealth, Warren Buffett does not measure success by dollars. In 2006, he pledged to give away almost his entire fortune to charities, primarily the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. He’s adamant about not funding monuments to himself — no Warren Buffett buildings or halls. “I know people who have a lot of money,” he says, “and they get testimonial dinners and hospital wings named after them. But the truth is that nobody in the world loves them. When you get to my age, you’ll measure your success in life by how many of the people you want to have love you, actually do love you. That’s the ultimate test of how you’ve lived your life.”

It is now emerging that thousands of customers may have lost millions of money invested with the Good Life Sacco.

For instance, in a message to Good Life Sacco, one of the victims, Isaac Macharia complained that since investing Sh. 150,000 in January, he has not received any communication on the state of his investment. He said: “I invested Sh. 150,000 in January, but I have not received any communication on the surety of that investment from your micro-fedha section.”

On Tuesday, the Good Life Sacco offices were closed for the whole day, prompting panic among investors who visited the offices seeking for refunds. This was after news spread that the sacco’s founder and director Obadiah Maina had been arrested on Monday.

According to reports reaching Bizna, the sacco ran by Obadiah Maina may not have been registered with any government financial regulatory body to run financial services.

Obadiah Maina last year came out to share his grass to grace story of how he rose from a Sh. 12,000 IT tutor job to founding the multi-million sacco. Obadiah Maina founded the Good Life Sacco in November 2012 with help from his friends. In six months, he told the media last year, we had registered 3,000 members.

By last year, he had 7,000 customers in his fold and apparently, was looking to turn the sacco into a bank by 2017. The sacco has six branches in Thika, Nyahururu, Nyeri, Nairobi and two in Eldoret. This year, he began selling sacco shares to the public. His wealth is estimated to be in the excess of Sh. 500 million.

In September 2012, Dr. Julius Kipng’etich surprised Kenya’s corporate world after he resigned as the director of the Kenya Wildlife Services (KWS) in order to join Equity Bank as its Chief Operating Officer. Since his appointment as the director of KWS in 2004, Dr. Kipng’etich had become synonymous with everything good about KWS.

At the time of his appointment, KWS was seen as a corrupt parastatal that grievously suffered from political interferences and poor management structures charged at merely taking care of Kenya’s wild animals. Within a span of eight years, Dr. Kipng’etich was able to engineer a massive turnaround that made KWS the beacon of process and good management. For instance, he turned the institution’s value from less than Sh. 1 billion to Sh. 5 billion, and in the process, bagged awards such as the CEO of the Year courtesy of the Company of the Year Awards.

Since moving to Equity Bank, Dr. Kipng’etich’ star somewhat dimmed. He ceased from the major platforms he was known from to work in the executive arms of the bank. In his appointment, Dr. Kipng’etich was charged with helping Equity Bank in its bid to becoming a pan-African entity. “As the bank continues to grow in size and footprint, we will continuously seek outstanding talent that will contribute in implementing the Bank’s Pan African expansion strategy,” said Equity Bank CEO Dr. James Mwangi, following the appointment. Interestingly, he had been serving in the bank’s board of directors prior to his appointment.

Three years later, on Tuesday, Dr. Kipng’etich took another bold corporate step when he became the CEO of troubled Uchumi Supermarkets. Since news on his appointment were released, various opinions have been tabled on why Dr. Kipng’etich may have quit his lucrative senior position at Equity Bank to steer what many perceive to be a sinking ship. On one hand, there is the opinion that despite being a corporate leader in his own right worth of walking in the CEO’s shoes, Dr. Kipng’etich had to contend with staying under the shadow of Dr. Mwangi, the CEO and face of Equity Bank.

It will be noted that after his entry into Equity Bank, Dr. Kipng’etich was seen as being groomed to head Equity Bank. On the other hand, there are those who have seen his move from flourishing Equity Bank to staggering Uchumi as a bold step from a man who is accustomed to turning around the fortunes of ailing corporates. Indeed, this fete could very well be what informed the decision to appoint him as Uchumi CEO, especially considering how he maneuvered KWS’s turnaround from less than a billion to a 5 billion entity.

Nonetheless, the question has remained on whether Dr. Kipng’etich has bitten more than he can chew.

Now, let us take a look at Uchumi. Over the past few years, Uchumi Supermarkets has been hitting the headlines for all the long reasons, including huge debts, inability to pay suppliers, empty shelves, shutting branches, misinformed expansion drives and net losses.

In June  this year, it was revealed that Uchumi Supermarkets had used property valuations to inflate profits and, or cover losses it made in the past two years. In 2013, Uchumi ought to have reported a loss of Sh. 123 million against the Sh. 357 million while in 2014, it ought to have reported a loss of Sh. 336 million against the Sh. 413 million it reported.

Currently, the firm is engaging the services of a HR firm Hipora Business Solutions in a bid to probe theft by employees. The retailer has 39 braches in East Africa and an workforce of about 4,500 employees. However, it has been lacking in strategic position of itself, and has been overwhelmed by other local supermarkets such as Tuskys, Nakumatt and Naivas in booking of strategic spaces.

In the same vein, the retailer owes suppliers funds amounting to around Sh. 1 billion, and has now turned to borrowing from banks and selling some of its assets to offset its pile of debts.

Last year, Uchumi Supermarkets took a Sh. 405 million loan from Co-operative Bank to pay suppliers, and another Sh. 600 million loan from KCB to fund expansion. It also floated a rights issue which failed intially before garnering Sh. 896 million. In July this year, the retailer took an additional Sh. 500 million loan from KCB

Notably, Dr. Kipng’etich will be succeeding the previous turnaround CEO Jonathan Ciano, who brought Uchumi from statutory management. Mr. Ciano was sacked for what the retailer termed as gross misconduct and gross negligence. It remains to be seen how Dr. Kipng’etich will engineer Uchumi’s turnaround at a time when the retailer is running as a wounded donkey in a horse’s race.

It also remains to be seen how Dr. Kipng’etich will protract his role to protect his corporate record.The question his performance as Uchumi CEO must answer is: was he right in moving from Equity Bank to lead Uchumi?